Science

Human moon landing in 2026?

$2.0M Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

$595.2K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

033%

149%

$500.9K Vol.•Apr 1, 2027

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

$350.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

20%

$314.9K Vol.•Ends Mar 1, 2027

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

13%

$247.2K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

$198.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

10%

$147.8K Vol.•Ends Apr 1, 2027

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%

September 300%

$146.0K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

$142.8K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

33%

$123.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

$117.5K Vol.•Ends Mar 1, 2027

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

<560%

5-635%

$104.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

September 30100%

Successful splash down?100%

$64.4K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX64%

OpenAI0%

$63.4K Vol.•Jan 2, 2027

Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by...?

OOctober 1550%

OOctober 3150%

$41.7K Vol.•Nov 1, 2026

SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?

$30.4K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

$28.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

<9500%

950–9990%

$24.1K Vol.•Jan 11, 2027

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

$20.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 8, 2027

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

December 31, 202624%

January 31, 202726%

3 more

$19.8K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

December 31, 202616%

December 31, 202754%

$19.4K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?

December 31, 20265%

March 31, 202750%

$17.7K Vol.•Apr 1, 2027

How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

11-398%

44-62%

$17.0K Vol.•Dec 1, 2026

How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?

FFewer than 50%

550%

$14.4K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027

SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

SSpaceX75%

OOpenAI25%

$13.2K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

December 31, 202628%

December 31, 202767%

$12.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Elon Bull Run Combo

$12.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 2, 2027

Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?

$12.3K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?

December 31, 20263%

December 31, 202711%

$11.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑4.5k100%

↑5k98%

$9.7K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?

44700+94%

44500+99%

$9.6K Vol.•Nov 1, 2026

SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…?

DDecember 31, 202625%

JJune 30, 202787%

$8.6K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027

Plague pandemic in 2026?

$8.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

$6.9K Vol.•Ends Feb 1, 2027

Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?

October 31, 20263%

December 31, 20269%

$5.9K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

178%

220%

$5.6K Vol.•Mar 2, 2027

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

072%

120%

$5.4K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by ___?

June 30, 202710%

December 31, 202724%

$4.8K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Precipitation in NYC in September?

<2"0%

2-3"0%

$4.8K Vol.•Dec 8, 2026

How strong will Koguma be?

Strong0%

Very strong100%

$4.8K Vol.•Oct 21, 2026

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer18%

Hodge Conjecture33%

$4.5K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

New pandemic before 2028?

11%

$3.9K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2028

Precipitation in Seoul in September?

100-125mm0%

200-250mm0%

$3.9K Vol.•Dec 8, 2026

OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?

OOpenAI57%

AAnthropic43%

$3.7K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

100-1191%

120-1398%

$3.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...

October 31100%

December 31100%

$3.4K Vol.•-

How strong will Champi be?

Severe tropical storm or weaker1%

Strong1%

$3.3K Vol.•Oct 30, 2026

Science

99 markets

Human moon landing in 2026?

$2.0M Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

FDA approves Retatrutide this year?

$595.2K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

033%

149%

$500.9K Vol.•Apr 1, 2027

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

$350.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

5kt meteor strike in 2026?

20%

$314.9K Vol.•Ends Mar 1, 2027

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

13%

$247.2K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

$198.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

10%

$147.8K Vol.•Ends Apr 1, 2027

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%

September 300%

$146.0K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

$142.8K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?

33%

$123.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

$117.5K Vol.•Ends Mar 1, 2027

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

<560%

5-635%

$104.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

September 30100%

Successful splash down?100%

$64.4K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX64%

OpenAI0%

$63.4K Vol.•Jan 2, 2027

Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by...?

OOctober 1550%

OOctober 3150%

$41.7K Vol.•Nov 1, 2026

SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026?

$30.4K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

$28.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?

<9500%

950–9990%

$24.1K Vol.•Jan 11, 2027

Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?

$20.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 8, 2027

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?

December 31, 202624%

January 31, 202726%

3 more

$19.8K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

December 31, 202616%

December 31, 202754%

$19.4K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?

December 31, 20265%

March 31, 202750%

$17.7K Vol.•Apr 1, 2027

How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

11-398%

44-62%

$17.0K Vol.•Dec 1, 2026

How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?

FFewer than 50%

550%

$14.4K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027

SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

SSpaceX75%

OOpenAI25%

$13.2K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

December 31, 202628%

December 31, 202767%

$12.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Elon Bull Run Combo

$12.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 2, 2027

Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?

$12.3K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by ___?

December 31, 20263%

December 31, 202711%

$11.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑4.5k100%

↑5k98%

$9.7K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?

44700+94%

44500+99%

$9.6K Vol.•Nov 1, 2026

SpaceX Starship Florida Launch by…?

DDecember 31, 202625%

JJune 30, 202787%

$8.6K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027

Plague pandemic in 2026?

$8.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

$6.9K Vol.•Ends Feb 1, 2027

Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?

October 31, 20263%

December 31, 20269%

$5.9K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

178%

220%

$5.6K Vol.•Mar 2, 2027

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

072%

120%

$5.4K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by ___?

June 30, 202710%

December 31, 202724%

$4.8K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Precipitation in NYC in September?

<2"0%

2-3"0%

$4.8K Vol.•Dec 8, 2026

How strong will Koguma be?

Strong0%

Very strong100%

$4.8K Vol.•Oct 21, 2026

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer18%

Hodge Conjecture33%

$4.5K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

New pandemic before 2028?

11%

$3.9K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2028

Precipitation in Seoul in September?

100-125mm0%

200-250mm0%

$3.9K Vol.•Dec 8, 2026

OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?

OOpenAI57%

AAnthropic43%

$3.7K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

100-1191%

120-1398%

$3.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by...

October 31100%

December 31100%

$3.4K Vol.•-

How strong will Champi be?

Severe tropical storm or weaker1%

Strong1%