World

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

$2.1M Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva23%

Flávio Bolsonaro77%

$1.9M Vol.•Oct 26, 2026

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

11%

$1.7M Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen46%

Jordan Bardella1%

$965.7K Vol.•Apr 19, 2027

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

OOctober 3178%

NNovember 3037%

$866.5K Vol.•Oct 31, 2026

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 3181%

December 3147%

4 more

$704.7K Vol.•Dec 31, 2026

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%

D Senate, R House1%

3 more

$611.8K Vol.•Nov 4, 2026

US military draft authorized in 2026?

$544.3K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

$535.2K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

December 3134%

October 315%

$518.5K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Will Russia capture Sumy by...?

$449.2K Vol.•Ends Apr 1, 2027

UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

$355.2K Vol.•Ends Dec 31, 2026

Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?

$337.5K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Trump x Greenland deal signed by...?

September 23100%

September 25100%

$335.2K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

India strike on Pakistan by...?

11%

$333.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

858%

932%

$327.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%

Republican Party10%

$314.8K Vol.•Nov 4, 2026

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+2%

Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%10%

$297.7K Vol.•Oct 26, 2026

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

16%

$296.7K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?

$295.5K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

NATO article 5 before 2027?

$283.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

11%

$281.5K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Donald Trump2%

J.D. Vance47%

$257.6K Vol.•Nov 8, 2028

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

$255.9K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Benjamin Netanyahu31%

Naftali Bennett13%

$249.0K Vol.•Oct 28, 2026

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

$248.9K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Science

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

13%

$247.2K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

Hormuz Agreement; R Senate2%

Hormuz Agreement; D Senate3%

$241.8K Vol.•Nov 4, 2026

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

$231.0K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?

December 311%

June 30, 20279%

$225.5K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

China x India military clash by...?

$222.3K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

$195.6K Vol.•Ends Nov 1, 2026

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

$195.4K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

$186.4K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

$182.4K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

$180.0K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Donald Trump50%

Pope Leo XIV0%

$176.7K Vol.•Apr 1, 2027

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party65%

Republican Party37%

$167.0K Vol.•Nov 4, 2026

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202725%

October 312%

$163.3K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

$161.0K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

10%

$159.8K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will US annex any territory in 2026?

$157.7K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)63%

Ken Paxton (R)38%

$153.6K Vol.•Nov 4, 2026

Ukraine coup attempt by...?

December 31, 20266%

December 31, 202722%

$153.2K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance21%

Gavin Newsom9%

$142.9K Vol.•Nov 8, 2028

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

$142.9K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3138%

October 318%

$135.7K Vol.•Dec 31, 2026

Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?

$129.3K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

World

987 markets

Will Hezbollah disarm by...?

$2.1M Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva23%

Flávio Bolsonaro77%

$1.9M Vol.•Oct 26, 2026

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

11%

$1.7M Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen46%

Jordan Bardella1%

$965.7K Vol.•Apr 19, 2027

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

OOctober 3178%

NNovember 3037%

$866.5K Vol.•Oct 31, 2026

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 3181%

December 3147%

4 more

$704.7K Vol.•Dec 31, 2026

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%

D Senate, R House1%

3 more

$611.8K Vol.•Nov 4, 2026

US military draft authorized in 2026?

$544.3K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by...?

$535.2K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

December 3134%

October 315%

$518.5K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Will Russia capture Sumy by...?

$449.2K Vol.•Ends Apr 1, 2027

UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

$355.2K Vol.•Ends Dec 31, 2026

Maduro's Wife Cilia Flores released from custody by...?

$337.5K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Trump x Greenland deal signed by...?

September 23100%

September 25100%

$335.2K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

India strike on Pakistan by...?

11%

$333.6K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

858%

932%

$327.6K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party91%

Republican Party10%

$314.8K Vol.•Nov 4, 2026

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+2%

Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%10%

$297.7K Vol.•Oct 26, 2026

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

16%

$296.7K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...?

$295.5K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

NATO article 5 before 2027?

$283.1K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

11%

$281.5K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Donald Trump2%

J.D. Vance47%

$257.6K Vol.•Nov 8, 2028

Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?

$255.9K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Benjamin Netanyahu31%

Naftali Bennett13%

$249.0K Vol.•Oct 28, 2026

Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?

$248.9K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Science

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

13%

$247.2K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

Hormuz Agreement; R Senate2%

Hormuz Agreement; D Senate3%

$241.8K Vol.•Nov 4, 2026

Yoon out of custody before 2027?

$231.0K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?

December 311%

June 30, 20279%

$225.5K Vol.•Jan 1, 2027

China x India military clash by...?

$222.3K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

$195.6K Vol.•Ends Nov 1, 2026

Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

$195.4K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?

$186.4K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

$182.4K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

$180.0K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Donald Trump50%

Pope Leo XIV0%

$176.7K Vol.•Apr 1, 2027

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party65%

Republican Party37%

$167.0K Vol.•Nov 4, 2026

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202725%

October 312%

$163.3K Vol.•Jul 1, 2027

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

$161.0K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?

10%

$159.8K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Will US annex any territory in 2026?

$157.7K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)63%

Ken Paxton (R)38%

$153.6K Vol.•Nov 4, 2026

Ukraine coup attempt by...?

December 31, 20266%

December 31, 202722%

$153.2K Vol.•Jan 1, 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance21%

Gavin Newsom9%

$142.9K Vol.•Nov 8, 2028

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

$142.9K Vol.•Ends Jan 1, 2027

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3138%

October 318%

$135.7K Vol.•Dec 31, 2026